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Schools routinely employ seating charts to influence educational outcomes. Dependable evidence for the causal effects of seating charts on students’ achievement levels and inequality, however, is scarce. We executed a large pre-registered field experiment to estimate causal peer effects on students’ test scores and grades by randomizing the seating charts of 195 classrooms (N=3,365 students). We found that neither sitting next to a deskmate with higher prior achievement nor sitting next to a female deskmate affected learning outcomes on average. However, we also found that sitting next to the highest-achieving deskmates improved the educational outcomes of the lowest-achieving students; and sitting next to the lowest-achieving deskmates lowered the educational outcomes of the highest-achieving students. Therefore, compared to random seating charts, achievement-discordant seating charts would decrease inequality; whereas achievement concordant seating charts would increase inequality. We discuss policy implications.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Tamás Keller: HUN-REN Centre for Social Sciences, Computational Social Science – Research Center for Educational and Network Studies, Budapest, Hungary HUN-REN Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Institute of Economics, Budapest, Hungary. TÁRKI Social Research Institute, Budapest, Hungary
E-mail: keller.tamas@tk.hu

Felix Elwert: Department of Sociology & Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, University of Wisconsin-Madison
E-mail: elwert@wisc.edu

Acknowledgements: The authors thank Carlo Barone, Dorottya Baross, Steven Durlauf, Edina Gábor, Eric Grodsky, Judit Kerek, Gábor Kertesi, Gábor Kézdi, Andreas Kotsadam, Xinran Li, Károly Takács, Jeffrey Smith, and audiences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, the University of Chicago, ISA RC28 Spring Meeting in Frankfurt am Main, the Annual Meeting of the International Network of Analytical Sociologists (INAS) in St. Petersburg, the Meeting of the Economics of Education Association (AEDE) in Las Palmas, the Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milan, and the European Research Network on Transitions in Youth (TiY) in Mannheim for valuable discussions. This research was funded by grants from the Hungarian National Research, Development, and Innovation Office (NKFIH), grant number K-135766; a János Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, #BO/00569/21/9; the New National Excellence Program of the Ministry for Culture and Innovation, #ÚNKP- 23-5-CORVINUS-149; and a Romnes Fellowship and a Vilas Midcareer Faculty Award, University of Wisconsin-Madison. Direct correspondence to Tamás Keller (keller.tamas@tk.hu) and Felix Elwert (elwert@wisc.edu).

Citation: Keller, Tamás, and Felix Elwert. 2023. “Feasible Peer Effects: Experimental Evidence for Deskmate Effects on Educational Achievement and Inequality” Sociological Science 7: 806-829.
Received: July 12, 2023
Accepted: May 2, 2023
Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Peter Bearman
DOI: 10.15195/v10.a28

The Refugee Advantage: English-Language Attainment in the Early Twentieth Century

By Parker Webservices on November 3, 2023 in Articles

Ran Abramitzky, Leah Boustan, Peter Catron, Dylan Connor, Rob Voigt

Sociological Science November 3, 2023
10.15195/v10.a27

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The United States has admitted more than 3 million refugees since 1980 through official refugee resettlement programs. Scholars attribute the success of refugee groups to governmental programs on assimilation and integration. Before 1948, however, refugees arrived without formal selection processes or federal support. We examine the integration of historical refugees using a large archive of recorded oral history interviews to understand linguistic attainment of migrants who arrived in the early twentieth century. Using fine-grained measures of vocabulary, syntax and accented speech, we find that refugee migrants achieved a greater depth of English vocabulary than did economic/family migrants, a finding that holds even when comparing migrants from the same country of origin or religious group. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that refugees had greater exposure to English or more incentive to learn, due to the conditions of their arrival and their inability to immediately return to their origin country.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Ran Abramitzky: Department of Economics, Stanford University and National Bureau of Economic Research
E-mail: ranabr@stanford.edu

Leah Boustan: Department of Economics, Princeton University and National Bureau of Economic Research
E-mail: lboustan@princeton.edu

Peter Catron: Department of Sociology, University of Washington
E-mail: catron@uw.edu

Dylan Connor: School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University
E-mail: d.c@asu.edu

Rob Voigt: Department of Linguistics, Northwestern University
E-mail: robvoigt@northwestern.edu

Acknowledgements: We acknowledge the excellent research assistance of Victoria Angelova, Harriet Brookes Gray, Sarah Frick, Myera Rashid, and Noah Simon. Sima Biondi, Alicia Liu, Lori Mitrano, Lorenzo Rosas, Antigone Xenopoulos and Adam Zhang helped to collect variables from the oral history interviews. Jared Grogan, Bailey Palmer and James Reeves coded the interviews for accented speech. Tom Zohar oversaw audio transcription of missing transcripts. We appreciate suggestions from audiences at Universitat Automoma de Barcelona, UC-Berkeley, European Social Science History Association, Harvard, University of Nottingham, Pompeu Fabra, University of Chicago, and University College, London. All data and replication files may be found here: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/HMMGJ5

Citation: Abramitzky et al. 2023. “The Refugee Advantage: English-Language Attainment in the Early Twentieth Century.” Sociological Science 10: 769-805.
Received: June 23, 2023
Accepted: August 23, 2023
Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Filiz Garip
DOI: 10.15195/v10.a27

Cross-Group Differences in Age, Period, and Cohort Effects: A Bounding Approach to the Gender Wage Gap

By Parker Webservices on October 31, 2023 in Articles

Ohjae Gowen, Ethan Fosse, Christopher Winship

Sociological Science October 31, 2023
10.15195/v10.a26

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For decades, researchers have sought to understand the separate contributions of age, period, and cohort (APC) on a wide range of outcomes. However, a major challenge in these efforts is the linear dependence among the three time scales. Previous methods have been plagued by either arbitrary assumptions or extreme sensitivity to small variations in model specification. In this article, we present an alternative method that achieves partial identification by leveraging additional information about subpopulations (or strata) such as race, gender, and social class. Our first goal is to introduce the cross-strata linearized APC (CSL-APC) model, a re-parameterization of the traditional APC model that focuses on cross-group variations in effects instead of overall effects. Similar to the traditional model, the linear cross-strata APC effects are not identified. The second goal is to show how Fosse and Winship’s (2019) bounding approach can be used to address the identification problem of the CSL-APC model, allowing one to partially identify cross-group differences in effects. This approach often involves weaker assumptions than previously used techniques and, in some cases, can lead to highly informative bounds. To illustrate our method, we examine differences in temporal effects on wages between men and women in the United States.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Ohjae Gowen: Department of Sociology, Harvard University
E-mail: ohjaegowen@g.harvard.edu

Ethan Fosse: Department of Sociology, University of Toronto
E-mail: ethan.fosse@utoronto.ca

Christopher Winship: Department of Sociology, Harvard University
E-mail: cwinship@wjh.harvard.edu

Acknowledgements: The authors thank Derick S. Baum for his invaluable assistance in the early stages of the analysis. This article also benefited from a presentation at the 2023 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans, LA.

Citation: Gowen, Ohjae, Ethan Fosse, and Christopher Winship. 2023. “Cross-Group Differences in Age, Period, and Cohort Effects: A Bounding Approach to the Gender Wage Gap.” Sociological Science 10: 731-768.
Received: February 9, 2023
Accepted: March 13, 2023
Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Richard Breen
DOI: 10.15195/v10.a26

Institutional Survival under Extreme State Repression and Subsequent Revival

By Parker Webservices on October 24, 2023 in Articles

Hongwei Xu, Litao Zhao

Sociological Science October 24, 2023
10.15195/v10.a25

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This study examines institutional survival under conditions of extreme state repression. We argue that institutional values under these onditions become dormant in small “safe” social spaces such as families and small close-knit social groups. As state repression becomes increasingly violent, the suppressed groups within those spaces become more resilient in preserving “deviant” values and mitigating the negative long-term impact of state violence on institutional revival. We examine the extent to which pre-1949 entrepreneurial families served as institutional carriers for private entrepreneurship in the Mao era (1949-1978) of China, especially in the context of the political violence of the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976), and shaped individuals’ entry into private entrepreneurship in the post-1978 reform era. We find that entrepreneurial transmission was suppressed at the family level by communist repression. Where more severe political violence occurred, pre-1949 entrepreneurial families could better mitigate the deterrent effect on institutional revival of the number of deaths that occurred locally during the Cultural Revolution. Stigmatized pre-1949 entrepreneurial families—those with “bad” class origins—mitigated the effects better than their nonstigmatized counterparts. We test to control for public sector job opportunities at the individual and municipal levels and find that these opportunities are unlikely to drive our results.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Hongwei Xu: Odette School of Business, University of Windsor
E-mail: hongwei.xu@uwindsor.ca

Litao Zhao: East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore
E-mail: eaizlt@nus.edu.sg

Acknowledgements: We thank Donald Treiman and Andrew Walder for making publicly available their data sets on China. We are also grateful to Philip Anderson, Glenn Carroll, Zhi Huang, Martin Ruef, Chunlei Wang, and Hong Zhang for providing helpful suggestions on earlier drafts.

Citation: Xu, Hongwei, and Litao Zhao. 2023. “Institutional Survival under Extreme State Repression and Subsequent Revival.” Sociological Science 10: 694-730.
Received: February 24, 2023
Accepted: March 13, 2023
Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Andreas Wimmer
DOI: 10.15195/v10.a25

The Inequality of Lifetime Pensions

By Parker Webservices on October 17, 2023 in Articles

Jiaxin Shi, Martin Kolk

Sociological Science October 17, 2023
10.15195/v10.a24

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At older ages, most people are supported by pension systems that provide payments based on prior contributions. An important, but neglected, aspect of inequality in how much people receive in pensions is the number of years they live to receive their pension. We examine inequality in lifetime-accumulated pensions and show the importance of mortality for understanding inequalities in pension payments, and contrast it to inequalities in working-age earnings and yearly pension payments among older adults. In contrast to most previous research on old-age inequality comparing different social groups, we focused on total-population-level inequality. Using Swedish register data covering the retired population born from 1918–1939, we found that lifetime pensions are much more unequal than pre-retirement earnings and yearly pensions. Our findings also show that mortality explains more than 50 percent of the inequality of lifetime pensions within cohorts, and plays an important role in explaining changes in inequality across cohorts (192 percent among men and 44 percent among women). Pension policies can affect lifetime pension inequality, but such effects are limited in magnitude unless they directly affect the number of years of receiving pensions.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Jiaxin Shi: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science & Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom. Demographic Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
E-mail: shi@demogr.mpg.de

Martin Kolk: Demography Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden. Institute for Future Studies, Stockholm, Sweden. Åbo Akademi University, Vaasa, Finland
E-mail: martin.kolk@sociology.su.se

Acknowledgements: We thank Jenn Dowd, Christian Dudel, John Ermisch, Martin Hällsten, Robert Hummer, Guanghui Pan, Fabian Pfeffer, Yifan Shen, Joshua Wilde, Alyson van Raalte, and participants at the Oxford Sociology Monday Meeting for their helpful feedback on previous drafts. Jiaxin Shi was supported by the European Research Council (grant no. 716323) and a Leverhulme Trust Grant (Grant RC-2018-003) for the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science at the University of Oxford. Jiaxin Shi gratefully acknowledges the resources provided by the International Max Planck Research School for Population, Health and Data Science (IMPRS-PHDS). Martin Kolk was supported by the Swedish Research Council (grant no. 2019-02552 and 2022-02314) and the Swedish Research Council for Health,Working Life andWelfare (FORTE, grant no. 2016-07115).

Citation: Shi, Jiaxin, and Martin Kolk. 2023. “The Inequality of Lifetime Pensions” Sociological Science 7: 667-693.
Received: May 24, 2023
Accepted: July 31, 2023
Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Stephen Vaisey
DOI: 10.15195/v10.a24

Does Unprecedented Mass Immigration Fuel Ethnic Discrimination? A Two-Wave Field Experiment in the German Housing Market

By Parker Webservices on October 10, 2023 in Articles

Katrin Auspurg, Renate Lorenz, Andreas Schneck

Sociological Science October 10, 2023
10.15195/v10.a23

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Literature suggests that sudden mass immigration can fuel xenophobic attitudes. However, there is a lack of reliable evidence on hostile actions, such as discrimination. In this study, we leverage the unexpected mass immigration of refugees to Germany in 2015 in combination with a two-wave field experiment to study the effect of immigration on ethnic discrimination. In 2015/2016, political and social tensions in the Middle East and North Africa led to a historic mass migration to European countries. We carried out a large-scale field experiment on ethnic housing market discrimination in Germany (paired e-mail correspondence test with ~5,000 e-mail applications to rental housing units in each wave) shortly before this “European refugee crisis” (1st wave). We repeated this experiment at the peak of the crisis (2nd wave of our experiment). By taking advantage of the unexpected refugee immigration between the two waves of our experiment and the quasi-random allocation of refugees across regions for causal identification, we find no credible evidence that the large influx of refugees changed the extent of ethnic discrimination of Turks in the rental housing market. This result holds regardless of the extent to which regions within Germany were already accustomed to immigration before the refugee crisis.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Katrin Auspurg: LMU Munich, Department of Sociology
E-mail: katrin.auspurg@lmu.de

Renate Lorenz: LMU Munich, Department of Sociology
E-mail: renate.lorenz@soziologie.uni-muenchen.de

Andreas Schneck: LMU Munich, Department of Sociology
E-mail: andreas.schneck@lmu.de

Acknowledgements: We thank the participants of the Annual Conference of Experimental Sociology (ACES) 2021, the Research Colloquium of the Doctoral School of Social Sciences at the University of Trento (2022) and the Social Science Research Colloquium at the TU Kaiserslautern (2022) for helpful suggestions. We are grateful for comments on earlier versions we received from Madison Garrett. Maximilian Sonnauer helped us compiling the database for the field experiments.

Citation: Auspurg, Katrin, Renate Lorenz, and Andreas Schneck. 2023. “Does Unprecedented Mass Immigration Fuel Ethnic Discrimination? A Two-Wave Field Experiment in the German Housing Market.” Sociological Science 10: 640-666.
Received: December 17, 2022
Accepted: April 17, 2023
Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Maria Abascal
DOI: 10.15195/v10.a23

The Ethnic Lens: Social Networks and the Salience of Ethnicity in the School Context

By Parker Webservices on October 3, 2023 in Articles

Clemens Kroneberg, Mark Wittek

Sociological Science October 3, 2023
10.15195/v10.a22

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Research on ethnic segregation in schools regularly assumed that ethnic homophily—the tendency to befriend same-ethnic peers, above and beyond other mechanisms of tie formation—is associated with salient ethnic boundaries. We devise a more direct test of this assumption based on a novel measure of ethno-racial group perceptions. In a network study of more than 3000 students in 39 schools of a metropolitan region in Germany, we asked students to indicate which cliques they perceived in their school grade and to describe these groups in their own words. We find that ethno-racial labels are more likely directed at larger cliques that include a higher share of Muslim students or more students with stronger ethnic identification. Still, ethno-racial labels are rarely employed, both absolutely and relative to other modes of classification. Moreover, net ethnic segregation in friendships (“ethnic homophily”) and the reverse pattern in dislike relations (“ethnic heterophobia”) are not associated with a more frequent use of ethno-racial labels. Our results have substantive and methodological implications for the study of social networks and diversity in educational settings.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Clemens Kroneberg: Institute of Sociology and Social Psychology, University of Cologne
E-mail: c.kroneberg@uni-koeln.de

Mark Wittek: Institute of Sociology and Social Psychology, University of Cologne
E-mail: wittek@wiso.uni-koeln.de

Acknowledgements: Both authors contributed equally to this work. Earlier versions of the article were presented at the “Frontiers in Quantitative Migration Research” colloquium series at the Berlin Institute for Integration and Migration Research and the Hertie School of Governance, at the 3rd Cultural Diversity, Migration, and Education Conference, Potsdam Center for Empirical Research on Inclusive Education, and at the 3rd Conference of the Academy of Sociology “Cohesive Societies?” at the University of Leipzig. We thank the various participants for their helpful feedback and especially Philipp Jugert who provided stimulating comments on a first version of this work. We would also like to thank Rosa Flore, Anna Bahß, Madita Zöll, Senami Viktoria Hotse, Katharina Burkart, Hannah Rose Tendal, Jan Nguyen, Alexandra Bothe, Zara Mansius, Juliane Reichelt, Mira Böing, Chiara Barfuß, and Agnes Tarnowski who helped in the coding of qualitative clique descriptions.

Funding: This project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant agreement No. 716461). Funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany’s Excellence Strategy—EXC 2126/1–390838866.

Citation: Kroneberg, Clemens, and Mark Wittek. 2023. “The Ethnic Lens: Social Networks and the Salience of Ethnicity in the School Context.” Sociological Science 10: 613-639.
Received: February 7, 2023
Accepted: March 14, 2023
Editors: Ari Adut, Wener Raub
DOI: 10.15195/v10.a22

Inclusive but Not Integrative: Ethnoracial Boundaries and the Use of Spanish in the Market for Rental Housing

By Parker Webservices on September 26, 2023 in Articles

Ariela Schachter, John Kuk, Max Besbris, and Garrett Pekarek

Sociological Science September 26, 2023
10.15195/v10.a21

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Increasing Spanish fluency in the United States likely shapes ethnoracial group boundaries and inequality. We study a key site for group boundary negotiations—the housing market—where Spanish usage may represent a key source of information exchange between landlords and prospective renters. Specifically, we examine the use of Spanish in advertisements for online rental housing and its effect on White, Black, and Latinx Americans’ residential preferences. Using a corpus of millions of Craigslist rental listings, we show that Spanish listings are concentrated in majority-Latinx neighborhoods with greater proportions of immigrant and Spanish-speaking residents. Furthermore, units that are advertised in Spanish tend be lower priced relative to non-Spanish ads in the same neighborhood. We then use a survey experiment to demonstrate that Spanish usage decreases White, Black, and non-Spanish-speaking Latinx Americans’ interest in a housing unit and surrounding neighborhood, whereas Spanish-speaking Latinx respondents are less affected. We discuss these findings in light of past work on neighborhood demographic preferences, segregation, and recent theorizing on within-category inequality.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Ariela Schachter: Department of Sociology, Washington University in St. Louis
E-mail: ariela@wustl.edu

John Kuk: Department of Political Science, Michigan State University
E-mail: jskuk@msu.edu

Max Besbris: Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison
E-mail: besbris@wisc.edu

Garrett Pekarek: Department of Sociology, Washington University in St. Louis
E-mail: g.e.pekarek@wustl.edu

Acknowledgements: For their generous and thoughtful engagement with previous drafts, we gratefully acknowledge René Flores and Elizabeth Korver-Glenn. We thank Maddy Molina and Leslye Quintanilla for their support as research assistants. This work has been supported by the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy at Washington University and is based on work supported by National Science Foundation (grants 1947591 and 1947598).

Citation: Schachter, Ariela, John Kuk, Max Besbris, and Garrett Pekarek. 2023. “Inclusive but Not Integrative: Ethnoracial Boundaries and the Use of Spanish in the Market for Rental Housing.” Sociological Science 10: 585-612.
Received: March 6, 2023
Accepted: March 22, 2023
Editors: Ari Adut, Filiz Garip
DOI: 10.15195/v10.a21

Shattered Dreams: Paternal Incarceration, Youth Expectations, and the Intergenerational Transmission of Disadvantage

By Parker Webservices on September 19, 2023 in Articles

Garrett Baker

Sociological Science September 19, 2023
10.15195/v10.a20

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Children’s expectations and aspirations have a substantial effect on a variety of life course outcomes, including their health, education, and earnings. However, little research to date has considered empirically how expectations and aspirations are shaped by adverse events—such as experiencing a parent be incarcerated. In this article, I leverage Add Health’s retrospective parental incarceration questions to employ an innovative analytic strategy that accounts for selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity above and beyond typical observational methods. Results indicate that paternal incarceration is associated with one-fourth to one-third of a standard deviation lower youth expectations and aspirations, and these results are robust to various methods and specifications. Given that paternal incarceration is both common and disproportionately experienced by disadvantaged youth, the large magnitude and robust nature of these results reveal an important pathway through which mass incarceration has contributed to the intergenerational transmission of inequality in the U.S. in recent decades.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Garrett Baker: Duke University Department of Sociology and Sanford School of Public Policy
E-mail: garrett.baker@duke.edu

Acknowledgements: I am especially grateful to Chris Wildeman for his immense patience and continued guidance as this article evolved over the years. I would also like to thank Brielle Bryan, Anna Gassman-Pines, Sarah Komisarow, Martin Ruef, and Steve Vaisey for their thoughtful comments on earlier drafts of this article. Participants at the 2022 American Sociological Association (ASA) Annual Meeting, the 2022 Population Association of America (PAA) Annual Meeting, and the 2022 American Society of Criminology (ASC) Annual Meeting also provided helpful feedback. This research uses data from Add Health, funded by grant P01 HD31921 (Harris) from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), with cooperative funding from 23 other federal agencies and foundations. Add Health is currently directed by Robert A. Hummer and funded by the National Institute on Aging cooperative agreements U01 AG071448 (Hummer) and U01AG071450 (Aiello and Hummer) at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Add Health was designed by J. Richard Udry, Peter S. Bearman, and Kathleen Mullan Harris at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Citation: Baker, Garrett. 2023. “Shattered Dreams: Paternal Incarceration, Youth Expectations, and the Intergenerational Transmission of Disadvantage.” Sociological Science 10: 559-584.
Received: February 21, 2023
Accepted: March 27, 2023
Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Peter Bearman
DOI: 10.15195/v10.a20

Why Net Worth Misrepresents Wealth Effects and What to Do About It

By Parker Webservices on September 18, 2023 in Articles

Jascha Dräger, Klaus Pforr, Nora Müller

Sociological Science September 18, 2023
10.15195/v10.a19

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Wealth plays an important role in social stratification but the results that can be obtained when analyzing wealth as a predictor variable depend on modeling decisions. Although wealth consists of multiple components it is often operationalized as net worth. Moreover, wealth effects are likely non-linear, but the functional form is often unknown. To overcome these problems, we propose to 1) split up net worth into gross wealth and debt and evaluate their joint effect and 2) use non-parametric Generalized Additive Models. We show in a simulation study that this approach describes systematic wealth differences in more detail and overfits less to random variation in the data than standard approaches. We then apply the approach to re-analyze wealth gaps in educational attainment in the US. We find that the operationalization of wealth as net worth results in a misclassification of which children have the best and the worst educational prospects. Not negative net worth is associated with the worst educational prospects but only the combination of low gross wealth and low debt. The most advantaged group are not only children with high net worth but all children with high gross wealth independent of the households’ amount of debt.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Jascha Dräger: Strathclyde Institute of Education, University of Strathclyde
E-mail: Jascha.draeger@web.de

Klaus Pforr: Department of Data and Research on Society, GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences
E-mail: klaus.pforr@gesis.org

Nora Müller: Department of Data and Research on Society, GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences
E-mail: nora.mueller@gesis.org

Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) under Grant No. 403547843. We thank Barbara Felderer, Max Thaning, Alejandra Rodríguez Sánchez, Øyvind Wiborg, the reviewer, and the editor for their helpful comments. Replication files can be found via https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/187561/version/V1/view.