Dulce Manzano, Héctor Cebolla-Boado
Sociological Science November 12, 2026
10.15195/v13.a51
Abstract
When does violent conflict intensify rather than suppress investment in children’s education? We argue that under conflicts characterized by selective violence and partial preservation of civilian infrastructure, families respond to uncertainty by reallocating resources toward portable forms of capital—most notably, education. Using retrospective data from Spain and a regression discontinuity design, we compare cohorts who reached school age during the Civil War (1936–1939) with adjacent birth cohorts. The baseline regression discontinuity design provides little robust evidence of an overall total effect of war exposure. Exploratory conditional specifications that adjust for educational supply show a +14 percentage point discontinuity in primary school completion and a +6 percentage point discontinuity in lower secondary completion. Because educational supply may itself have been affected by the war, these conditional estimates are consistent with a positive demand-side response that may have been offset in the total effect by supply-side constraints. At the primary level, gains were largest among children from less educated households, suggesting partial equalization of educational opportunity. These findings propose a conditional theory of how violent disruption reshapes family investment strategies and, through them, patterns of educational inequality.
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Reproducibility Package: All documentation and code necessary to reproduce the empirical results presented in this manuscript is publicly available at https://digital.csic.es/handle/10261/434731. The replication materials provide access to the merged dataset used in the analyses, which combines processed microdata from the INE Sociodemographic Survey (1991) with provincial educational supply variables and economic indicators. The merged dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.20350/digitalCSIC/20220. The historical educational supply data are archived separately at https://doi.org/10.20350/digitalCSIC/18749 and should be cited when these data are used. All replication materials and datasets are publicly accessible without restrictions.
- Citation: Manzano, Dulce, and Héctor Cebolla-Boado. 2026. “Violent Conflict and Family Investment in Education” Sociological Science 13: 1354-1381.
- Received: May 10, 2026
- Accepted: July 24, 2026
- Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Herman van de Werfhorst
- DOI: 10.15195/v13.a51






