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We question the validity of standard measures of gender ideology. When asked about “men” and “women” in general, respondents may imagine women (men) with lower (higher) labor market resources. Therefore, standard measures may conflate gender ideologies (injunctive norms) with stereotypical beliefs (descriptive norms). We test this hypothesis with an experiment in the German family panel pairfam: ∼1,200 respondents rated the appropriate division of housework in ∼3,700 hypothetical couples. By gradually adding information about labor market resources, we were able to override respondents’ stereotypical beliefs. We find that with more information, even “traditional” respondents support egalitarian housework arrangements. The main difference between “traditional” and “egalitarian” respondents is not in their ideologies (as previously thought), but in their interpretation of vague items. This leads us to conclude that standard measures overestimate traditional gender ideologies. Our study also illustrates how varying the amount of information can help identify respondents’ implicit beliefs.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Katrin Auspurg: Department of Sociology, LMU Munich
E-mail: katrin.auspurg@lmu.de

Sabine Düval: German Youth Institute (DJI)
E-mail: dueval@dji.de

Acknowledgements: We thank the participants of the Conference of the European Survey Research Association (ESRA) in 2019, the Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Association (ASA) in 2019, the pairfam User Conference in 2019, and the seminar on “Analytical Sociology: Theory and Empirical Applications” at at the Venice International University in 2018 for helpful suggestions. We are also grateful for comments on an earlier version we received from Josef Brüderl. We used data from the German Family Panel pairfam, coordinated by Josef Brüderl, Sonja Drobniè, Karsten Hank, Johannes Huinink, Bernhard Nauck, Franz J. Neyer, and Sabine Walper. From 2004 to 2022, pairfam was funded as priority program and long-term project by the German Research Foundation (DFG). Sabine Düval worked on the manuscript and data analysis mainly during her PhD studies at the LMU Munich. Part of this work was done while Katrin Auspurg was a Visiting Fellow at the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence.

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Reproducibility Package: The data we used (pairfam data release 10.0) can be accessed here: https://www.pairfam.de/en/data/data-access. Our replication files (Stata dofiles and data on response times not included in the pairfam release) are available on the following OSF platform: https://osf.io/3fqw9 (Auspurg and Düval 2024).

Citation: Auspurg, Katrin, and Sabine Düval. 2024. “Housework as a Woman’s Job?: What Looks Like Gender Ideologies Could Also Be Stereotypes.” Sociological Science 11: 789-814.
Received: September 21, 2023
Accepted: February 22, 2024
Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Maria Abascal
DOI: 10.15195/v11.a29

Examining Attitudes toward Asians throughout the COVID-19 Pandemic with Repeated Cross-Sectional Survey Experiments

By Parker Webservices on August 30, 2024 in Articles

Yao Lu, Neeraj Kaushal, Xiaoning Huang, S. Michael Gaddis, Ariela Schachter

Sociological Science August 30, 2024
10.15195/v11.a28

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This study examines how COVID-induced and general attitudes toward Asians have changed over the course of the pandemic using nationally representative survey experiments in 2020 and 2022. First, we measured COVID-induced anti-Asian attitudes as the effect of a treatment reminding respondents of the pandemic on whether respondents would be willing to live or work with someone who is East or South Asian. The results suggest that the COVID-19 treatment worsened attitudes toward East and South Asians in the social domain and toward East Asians in the economic domain in 2020, but not in 2022. Second, we measured change in general attitudes toward Asians by comparing the control group responses in 2020 and 2022. The results demonstrate that, over the same period, general attitudes toward Asians have not improved despite growing attention toward anti-Asian biases. This finding underscores the persistence of general negative attitudes toward Asians beyond the immediate context of the pandemic and the ongoing imperative to actively address deeply ingrained biases against Asians.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Yao Lu: Department of Sociology, Columbia University
E-mail: yl2479@columbia.edu

Neeraj Kaushal: School of Social Work, Columbia University
E-mail: nk464@columbia.edu

Xiaoning Huang: Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University
E-mail: jack.huang@northwestern.edu

S. Michael Gaddis: Research and Policy Partnerships, NWEA
E-mail: michael.gaddis@nwea.org

Ariela Schachter: Washington University in St. Louis
E-mail: ariela@wustl.edu

Acknowledgements: We thank Tiffany Huang, Jennifer Lee, and participants of the Experimental Design Workshop at Columbia University, and the Asia and Asian America Working Group at University of Pennsylvania for their helpful comments. This research was funded by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (1R21HD105183), the Columbia Population Research Center, the Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, the Center for Pandemic Research, and the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University.

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Replication Package: Study materials can be found at the Open Science Framework https://osf.io/a6ewy/.

Citation: Lu, Yao, Neeraj Kaushal, Xiaoning Huang, S. Michael Gaddis, and Ariela Schachter. 2024. “Examining Attitudes toward Asians throughout the COVID-19 Pandemic with Repeated Cross-Sectional Survey Experiments.” Sociological Science 11:777-788.
Received: October 27, 2023
Accepted: March 16, 2024
Editors: Ari Adut, Maria Abascal
DOI: 10.15195/v11.a28

Teacher Bias in Assessments by Student Ascribed Status: A Factorial Experiment on Discrimination in Education

By Parker Webservices on August 27, 2024 in Articles

Carlos J. Gil-Hernández, Irene Pañeda-Fernández, Leire Salazar, Jonatan Castaño Muñoz

Sociological Science August 27, 2024
10.15195/v11.a27

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Teachers are the evaluators of academic merit. Identifying if their assessments are fair or biased by student-ascribed status is critical for equal opportunity but empirically challenging, with mixed previous findings. We test status characteristics beliefs, statistical discrimination, and cultural capital theories with a pre-registered factorial experiment on a large sample of Spanish pre-service teachers (n = 1, 717). This design causally identifies, net of ability, the impact of student-ascribed characteristics on teacher short- and long-term assessments, improving prior studies’ theory testing, confounding, and power. Findings unveil teacher bias in an essay grading task favoring girls and highbrow cultural capital, aligning with status characteristics and cultural capital theories. Results on teachers’ long-term expectations indicate statistical discrimination against boys, migrant origin, and working-class students under uncertain information. Unexpectedly, ethnic discrimination changes from teachers favoring native origin in long-term expectations to migrant origin in short-term evaluations, suggesting compensatory grading. We discuss the complex roots of discrimination in teacher assessments as an educational (in)equality mechanism.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Carlos J. Gil-Hernández∗: Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications, University of Florence
∗Corresponding author, E-mail: carlos.gil@unifi.it

Irene Pañeda-Fernández: WZB Berlin Social Science Center
E-mail: irene.paneda@wzb.eu

Leire Salazar: Institute for Public Goods and Policies, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
E-mail: leire.salazar@cchs.csic.es

Jonatan Castaño Muñoz: Departamento de Didática y Organización Educativa, Universidad de Sevilla
E-mail: jcastanno@us.es

Acknowledgements: This project has been funded through the JRC Centre for Advanced Studies and the project Social Classes in the Digital Age (DIGCLASS). Jonatan Castaño Muñoz acknowledges the support of a) the ‘Ramón y Cajal’ grant RYC2020-030157 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by “ESF Investing in your future”; and b) University of Seville “VI University research plan” (VI plan propio de investigación). We thank Lilian Weikert, William Foley, Zbigniew Karpiñski, David Martínez de Lafuente, Alberto López, and Mario Spiezio for their valuable feedback and support. We also thank the participants at the following venues where we presented earlier versions of the article: the ‘Experiments on Social Inequality’ Workshop at Sciences Po-LIEPP, the ‘Colloquium of the Migration and Diversity Department’ at the WZB Berlin Social Science Centre, the ECSR Thematic Conference ‘Effort and Social Inequality’ and ‘2024 IC3JM Conference’ at Carlos III-Juan March Institute of Social Sciences, the FES ‘Inequality and Social Stratification Committee Workshop’ in Oviedo, the ‘Education and Social Inequalities Seminar’ at University of Sevilla, the ‘CLIC Seminar Series’ at the European University Institute, the SISEC conference in Cagliari, and the FES National Congress in Sevilla.

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Replication Package: Data and replication code are publicly accessible at the GitHub repository: https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.12666534. The hypotheses and research design were publicly pre-registered with a pre-analysis plan (PAP) before data collection and analysis at the Open Science Foundation repository: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/DZB3S.

Citation: J. Gil-Hernández, Carlos, Irene Pañeda-Fernández, Leire Salazar, Jonatan Castaño Muñoz, 2024. “Teacher Bias in Assessments by Student Ascribed Status: A Factorial Experiment on Discrimination in Education” Sociological Science 11: 743-776.
Received: January 6, 2024
Accepted: July 9, 2024
Editors: Ari Adut, Stephen Vaisey
DOI: 10.15195/v11.a27

Algorithmic Risk Scoring and Welfare State Contact Among US Children

By Parker Webservices on August 23, 2024 in Articles

Martin Eiermann

Sociological Science August 23, 2024
10.15195/v11.a26

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Predictive Risk Modeling (PRM) tools are widely used by governing institutions, yet research on their effects has yielded divergent findings with low external validity. This study examines how such tools influence child welfare governance, using a quasi-experimental design and data from more than one million maltreatment investigations in 121 US counties. It demonstrates that the adoption of PRM tools reduced maltreatment confirmations among Hispanic and Black children but increased such confirmations among high-risk and low-SES children. PRM tools did not reduce the likelihood of subsequent maltreatment confirmations; and effects were heterogeneous across counties. These findings demonstrate that the use of PRM tools can reduce the incidence of state interventions among historically over-represented minorities while increasing it among poor children more generally. However, they also illustrate that the impact of such tools depends on local contexts and that technological innovations do not meaningfully address chronic state interventions in family life that often characterize the lives of vulnerable children.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Martin Eiermann: Department of Sociology, Duke University
E-mail: martin.eiermann@duke.edu.

Acknowledgements: The author thanks Olivia Kim and Henry Zapata for invaluable research assistance, and thanks Garrett Baker, Alexandra Gibbons, Sarah Sernaker, and Christopher Wildeman for constructive feedback.

Replication Package: Access to restricted-use NCANDS data can be requested through the National Data Archive on Child Abuse and Neglect (NDACAN). Other data and replication code are available at: https://osf.io/dq3xp/.

Citation: Eiermann, Martin. 2024. “Algorithmic Risk Scoring and Welfare State Contact Among US Children” Sociological Science 11: 707-742.
Received: May 20, 2024
Accepted: July 2, 2024
Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Maria Abascal
DOI: 10.15195/v11.a26

Status Ambiguity and Multiplicity in the Selection of NBA Awards

By Parker Webservices on August 20, 2024 in Articles

Peter McMahan, Eran Shor

Sociological Science August 20, 2024
10.15195/v11.a25

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Sociologists of culture have long noted that contrasting cultural frames can lead to status ambiguity and status multiplicity. We explore these phenomena in the domain of professional sports by first replicating and then extending and challenging recently published findings on selections for the National Basketball Association (NBA) All-Star game. Relying on a large data set that includes more than 10,000 player–years, we show that accounting for better-justified performance measures reduces but does not nullify the effects of status cumulative advantage on All-Star selections. However, when replacing All-Star selections with a less ambiguous measure (selections to All-NBA teams), we no longer find evidence of decoupling between player performance and award nomination. From this we conclude that cumulative status advantage only affects selection when voters view factors other than statistical performance as legitimate, perhaps even desired, selection criteria. These findings have relevance for our understanding of status evaluations beyond professional sports, including in domains as diverse as the film industry, the performing arts, literature, politics, and the sciences.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Peter McMahan: Department of Sociology, McGill University
Email: peter.mcmahan@mcgill.ca

Eran Shor: Department of Sociology, McGill University
Email: eran.shor@mcgill.ca

Replication Package: Reproduction package is available at https://github.com/mcmahanp/nba_status.

Citation: McMahan, Peter, and Eran Shor. 2024. “Status ambiguity and multiplicity in the selection of NBA awards.” Sociological Science 11: 680-706.
Received: January 5, 2024
Accepted: June 2, 2024
Editors: Ari Adut, Ray Reagans
DOI: 10.15195/v11.a25

Unemployment Insurance and the Family: Heterogeneous Effects of Benefit Generosity on Reemployment and Economic Precarity

By Parker Webservices on August 16, 2024 in Articles

Ursina Kuhn, Debra Hevenstone, Leen Vandecasteele, Samin Sepahniya, Dorian Kessler

Sociological Science August 16, 2024
10.15195/v11.a24

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We investigate how unemployment insurance generosity impacts reemployment and economic precarity by family type. With Swiss longitudinal administrative data and a regression discontinuity design using potential benefit duration, we examine differences between single households and primary and secondary or equal earners, as well as differences by gender and presence of children. Less generous unemployment insurance (shorter potential benefit duration) speeds up reemployment for all family types during the period with benefit cuts whereas longer-term effects are stronger for single households, secondary and equal earners, and those without children. Economic precarity increases for singles, single-parents, and primary earners during the period with lower benefits though there are no long-term effects. We argue that those with higher financial responsibility (i.e., primary earners or those with children) face pressure to find jobs irrespective of benefit generosity whereas those with lower financial responsibility (i.e., secondary or equal earners and those without children) have more capacity to react.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Ursina Kuhn: Social Work, Bern University of Applied Sciences. Swiss Centre of Expertise in the Social Sciences (FORS)
E-mail: ursina.kuhn@fors.unil.ch

Debra Hevenstone: SocialWork, Bern University of Applied Sciences
E-mail: debra.hevenstone@bfh.ch

Leen Vandecasteele: Swiss Centre of Expertise in Life Course Research (LIVES), Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, University of Lausanne
E-mail: leen.vandecasteele@unil.ch

Samin Sepahniya: Social Work and Health, University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland
E-mail: samin.sepahniya@fhnw.ch

Dorian Kessler: Social Work, Bern University of Applied Sciences
E-mail: dorian.kessler@bfh.ch

Acknowledgements: This article was written as part of the project Family Models and Unemployment (grant number 176371) funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF). We would like to acknowledge the SNSF project “Coupled Inequalities. Trends and Welfare State Differences in the Role of Partner’s Socio-Economic Resources for Employment Careers” (grant number 100017_182406) and the Swiss Centre of Expertise in Life Course Research (LIVES) for fruitful collaboration and exchange. We thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments which helped to clarify the paper. We also thank the SNSF for open access funding of this article.

Replication Package: The code for data analysis, data description, and instructions on how data can be requested for replication is provided on SwissUbase. https://doi.org/10.25597/tm2k-jf98

Citation: Kuhn, Ursina, Debra Hevenstone, Leen Vandecasteele, Samin Sepahniya and Dorian Kessler. 2024. “Unemployment Insurance and the Family: Heterogeneous Effects of Benefit Generosity on Reemployment and Economic Precarity.” Sociological Science 11: 649-679.
Received: July 4, 2024
Accepted: March 18, 2024
Editors: Ari Adut, Vida Maralani
DOI: 10.15195/v11.a24

Disparate Impact? Career Disruptions and COVID-19 Impact Statements in Tenure Evaluations

By Parker Webservices on August 13, 2024 in Articles

Lauren A. Rivera, Katherine Weisshaar, András Tilcsik

Sociological Science August 13, 2024
10.15195/v11.a23

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Extensive research reveals employer biases against workers with career disruptions, particularly those related to caregiving. However, the effectiveness of organizational practices intended to mitigate such biases is less well understood. This study examines the use of COVID-19 impact statements in tenure decisions at research universities, an organizational intervention that was designed to reduce biases but raised concerns that it might inadvertently amplify them. Contrary to concerns about unintended consequences, a pre-registered survey experiment with 602 full professors in STEM fields reveals that the inclusion of impact statements leads to more favorable tenure evaluations, regardless of faculty gender and disruption type. Qualitative evidence suggests that perceptions of pandemic-related disruptions as legitimate, externally imposed, time-limited events in the past help circumvent previously documented biases. This study enhances our understanding of organizational practices that effectively mitigate biases and points to the potential role of narrative framing in workplace evaluations and organizational inequalities.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Lauren A. Rivera: Department of Management and Organizations, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University
E-mail: L-rivera@kellogg.northwestern.edu

Katherine Weisshaar: Department of Sociology, Northwestern University
E-mail: kate.weisshaar@northwestern.edu

András Tilcsik: Department of Strategic Management, Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto
E-mail: andras.tilcsik@rotman.utoronto.ca

Acknowledgements: We are deeply grateful to Jeannette Colyvas for formative discussions about COVID-19 impact statements. We also thank Anne Bowers, Clayton Childress, Stefan Dimitriadis, Laura Doering, Alicia Eads, Angelina Grigoryeva, Ryann Manning, Santiago Campero Molina, Sida Liu, Katherine Spoon, the Toronto Group of Seven, participants at the International Conference on Science of Science and Innovation, and seminar participants at the Amsterdam Centre for Inequality Studies, Stanford University, and Columbia University for useful feedback on early drafts.

Replication Package: Deidentified survey data and the code needed to replicate the findings are available at https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/UAM9PJ.

Citation: Rivera, Lauren A., Katherine Weisshaar, and András Tilcsik. 2024. “Disparate Impact? Career Disruptions and COVID-19 Impact Statements in Tenure Evaluations. Sociological Science 11: 626-648.
Received: May 13, 2024
Accepted: June 17, 2024
Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Kristen Schilt
DOI: 10.15195/v11.a23

Labor Market Consequences of Grandparenthood

By Parker Webservices on August 9, 2024 in Articles

Won-tak Joo, Felix Elwert, Martin D. Munk

Sociological Science August 9, 2024
10.15195/v11.a22

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Little is known about the labor market consequences of becoming a grandparent. We estimate grandparenthood effects on labor supply and earnings using detailed multigenerational data from Danish population registers. Results show that the consequences of grandparenthood are unequally distributed and starkly patterned. Becoming a grandparent reduces hours worked and income, especially for grandmothers, more so when the grandchild is born to a daughter, and most when the grandmother’s daughter gives birth as a teenager. Grandfathers also experience a reduction in hours worked (but not income) from their daughter’s teen birth, but the reduction is much smaller than among grandmothers. The effects of a daughter’s teen birth are further amplified for low-income grandmothers. Our results imply that childbearing has multigenerational consequences that are structured by gendered caregiving, the caregiving needs of the parent generation, and the delegating capacity of the grandparent generation.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Won-tak Joo: Department of Sociology and Criminology & Law, University of Florida
E-mail: wjoo@ufl.edu

Felix Elwert: Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison
E-mail: elwert@wisc.edu

Martin D. Munk: School of Health and Welfare, Halmstad University; SEC, Department of Sociology, Uppsala University
E-mail: mdmunk@gmail.com; Martin.David.Munk@hh.se

Acknowledgements: We thank Kasper Lolk for outstanding research assistance; Peter Fallesen, Jingying He, Michael Sobel, and audiences at the University of Chicago for discussions and advice; and Statistics Denmark for redacting public replication code and data setup. This research received support from the Independent Research Fund Denmark, Social Sciences (#0602-02227B); Helse Foundation (Helsefonden); the Danish School of Education at Aarhus University; the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute for Child Health and Human Development through the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (#T1 R01HD102125 and #T32 HD007014-42) and the Berkeley Population Center at the University of California, Berkeley (#P2CHD073964); and the National Institute on Aging through the Center for Demography of Health and Aging at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (#P30AG017266) and the Berkeley Center on the Economics and Demography of Aging (#5P30AG012839) and the Berkeley Population Center (#R01AG058940) at the University of California, Berkeley as well as a Romnes Fellowship from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Replication Package: Because our data-use agreement prohibits direct sharing of our analytic data and original code, we share minimally redacted (removal of identifiers) analytic code and instructions to access our replication package at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/OV3IEK. Interested parties may apply to Statistics Denmark (https://www.dst.dk/en/TilSalg/Forskningsservice/Dataadgang/) for access to the replication package.

Citation: Joo, Won-tak, Felix Elwert, and Martin D. Munk. 2024. “Labor Market Consequences of Grandparenthood” Sociological Science 11: 600-625.
Received: January 18, 2024
Accepted: June 12, 2024
Editors: Ari Adut, Vida Maralani
DOI: 10.15195/v11.a22

Three Lions or Three Scapegoats: Racial Hate Crime in the Wake of the Euro 2020 Final in London

By Parker Webservices on August 6, 2024 in Articles

Christof Nägel, Mathijs Kros, Ryan Davenport

Sociological Science August 6, 2024
10.15195/v11.a21

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Does (under-)performance of athletes from stigmatized racial groups influence the incidence of racial hate crimes? We consider the case of the English national football team during the 2020 European Football Championship and analyze whether the performance of black players during the final at Wembley affected the number of racial hate crimes committed in London. The three English players who missed their penalties in the final are all black English players. Combining insights from (displaced) frustration-aggression and scapegoat theory, we argue that the frustration of losing the final resulted in violence directed at racial minority group members in London. Our findings show that the lost final triggered a 30 percent increase in racial hate crimes in the weeks following the event. The immediate impact was larger in boroughs with higher pre-event levels of racial hate crimes, indicating a galvanizing instead of a mobilizing exacerbation of this trigger event.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Christof Nägel: Insitute of Sociology & Social Psychology, University of Cologne
E-mail: naegel@wiso.uni-koeln.de

Mathijs Kros: Department of Sociology, Utrecht University
E-mail: m.kros@uu.nl

Ryan Davenport: University College London
E-mail: ryan.davenport@ucl.ac.uk

Acknowledgements: We are grateful to Frank van Tubergen, Huyen Nguyen, Jan-Willem Simons, Eva Jaspers, Chloé Lavest, Lucas Drouhot, Jeffrey Mitchell, Malcom Fairbrother, and Alexandra Heyden for feedback on an earlier version of this article.

Replication Package: A package to reproduce the results presented in this article is accessible at https://osf.io/hzuqk/.

Citation: Nägel, Christof, Mathijs Kros, and Ryan Davenport. 2024. “Three Lions or Three Scapegoats: Racial Hate Crime in the Wake of the Euro 2020 Final in London” Sociological Science 11: 579-599.
Received: April 10, 2024
Accepted: June 10, 2024
Editors: Ari Adut, Bart Bonikowski
DOI: 10.15195/v11.a21

Homebound: The Long-Term Rise in Time Spent at Home Among U.S. Adults

By Parker Webservices on August 2, 2024 in Articles

Patrick Sharkey

Sociological Science August 2, 2024
10.15195/v11.a20

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The changes in daily life induced by the COVID-19 pandemic brought renewed attention to longstanding concerns about social isolation in the United States. Despite the links between the physical setting for individuals’ daily lives and their connections with family, friends, and the various institutions of collective life, trends in where American adults spend their time have been largely overlooked as researchers have focused on how and with whom they spend their time. This article analyzes data from the American Time Use Survey over a timeframe spanning nineteen years and argues that the changes in Americans’ daily routines induced by the COVID era should be seen as an acceleration of a longer-term trend: the rise of time spent at home. Results show that from 2003 to 2022, average time spent at home among American adults has risen by one hour and 39 minutes in a typical day. Time at home has risen for every subset of the population and for virtually all activities. Preliminary analysis indicates that time at home is associated with lower levels of happiness and less meaning, suggesting the need for enhanced empirical attention to this major shift in the setting of American life.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Patrick Sharkey: William S. Tod Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs, Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
E-mail: psharkey@princeton.edu

Acknowledgements: I would like to thank the March, 2024 cohort of the Rockefeller Foundation’s Bellagio Center Residency Program. I began thinking about and working on this article during the residency, and my colleagues there provided insightful feedback, questions, and comments on the analysis. I thank Michael Maesano for excellent research assistance.