Tag Archives | nonlinear treatment

Quantities of Interest for Interactions and the Pitfalls of Assuming Linear Treatment Effects

Josep Serrano-Serrat

Sociological Science August 6, 2026
10.15195/v13.a36


Although quantitative social sciences often rely on estimating models in which treatment effects vary across groups, researchers rarely specify which causal quantity they aim to estimate or justify their empirical modeling choices. This article makes two contributions. First, it clarifies the distinct quantities of interest when studying interactions: comparisons at different treatment intensities (the difference in conditional average marginal effects) and comparisons at similar intensities (what I term the average interactive partial effect). When treatment effects are nonlinear and treatment distributions differ across groups, these quantities diverge. Second, the article assesses estimation strategies to estimate these quantities. It demonstrates that linear interaction models produce biased estimates of either quantity when treatment effects are nonlinear and explores two alternatives that explicitly accommodate such nonlinearities. This article is accompanied by an R package that implements these approaches. Through simulations, stylized examples, and an empirical application, the article shows that explicitly defining the quantity of interest and selecting appropriate models is essential for valid interaction analysis.

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.


Josep Serrano-Serrat: Institute for Public Goods and Policies (IPP), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC).
E-mail: j.serrano.serrat@csic.es.

Acknowledgments: An earlier version of this article was presented at the 2024 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association in Philadelphia and the 2025 Annual Conference of the Swiss Political Science Association in Genève. I am grateful to Cesc Amat, Ignacio Jurado, Patrick W. Kraft, Sergi Martínez, and Marco Steenbergen for their valuable comments and suggestions, which substantially improved the article. I also thank Felix Elwert, as Editor of Sociological Methods & Research, Arnout van de Rijt, as Editor of Sociological Science, and an anonymous reviewer for their insightful feedback and constructive guidance throughout the revision process.


Supplemental Materials

Reproducibility Package: All code necessary to replicate this study is available in an OSF repository at https://osf.io/8tx6g/.


  • Citation: Serrano-Serrat, Josep. 2026. “Quantities of Interest for Interactions and the Pitfalls of Assuming Linear Treatment Effects” Sociological Science 13:945-970.
  • Received: March 11, 2026
  • Accepted: June 23, 2026
  • Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Kristian B. Karlson
  • DOI: 10.15195/v13.a36


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