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Predictive Algorithms and Perceptions of Fairness: Parent Attitudes Toward Algorithmic Resource Allocation in K-12 Education

Rebecca A. Johnson, Simone Zhang

Sociological Science May 16, 2025
10.15195/v12.a15


As institutions increasingly use predictive algorithms to allocate scarce resources, scholars have warned that these algorithms may legitimize inequality. Although research has examined how elite discourses position algorithms as fair, we know less about how the public perceives them compared to traditional allocation methods. We implement a vignette-based survey experiment to measure perceptions of algorithmic allocation relative to common alternatives: administrative rules, lotteries, petitions from potential beneficiaries, and professional judgment. Focusing on the case of schools allocating scarce tutoring resources, our nationally representative survey of U.S. parents finds that parents view algorithms as fairer than traditional alternatives, especially lotteries. However, significant divides emerge along socioeconomic and political lines—lower socioeconomic status (SES) and conservative parents favor the personal knowledge held by counselors and parents, whereas higher SES and liberal parents prefer the impersonal logic of algorithms. We also find that, after reading about algorithmic bias, parental opposition to algorithms is strongest among those who are most directly disadvantaged. Overall, our findings map cleavages in attitudes that may influence the adoption and political sustainability of algorithmic allocation methods.
Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Rebecca A. Johnson: Equal first authorship. McCourt School of Public Policy (affiliate:Department of Sociology), Georgetown University
E-mail: rj545@georgetown.edu

Simone Zhang: Equal first authorship. Department of Sociology, New York University
E-mail: simone.zhang@nyu.edu

Acknowledgments: Thanks to the following students for excellent research assistance—Collin Crane, Liz Moison, MorganWelch, and Rosy Zhong—and to Leah Jones, Katherine Christie, and Tyler Simko for related collaborations/discussions. We are also grateful for feedback from the following audiences: Sociology of Education Association annual meeting; Georgetown McCourt School of Public Policy seminar series; Georgetown Sociology colloquium; the Notre Dame Center for Research on Educational Opportunity; APPAM and Sean Reardon as a discussant; Lydia Liu’s AI, Society, and Education Seminar at Princeton University; and James Druckman and anonymous reviewers via the TESS process. This research received funding from the Dartmouth Neukom Institute for Computational Science, the NSF TESS Young Investigators Special Competition (NSF Grant 0818839; Jeremy Freese and James Druckman, Principal Investigators), and the Spencer/NAEd Postdoctoral Fellowship.

Supplemental Materials

Reproducibility Package: The data underlying this article are available as part of our replication materials available at this link: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/EUJ1YZ. The data for the main analyses is the TESS .tab format file at this link: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/file.xhtml?fileId=10796997&version=1.0

  • Citation: Johnson, A. Rebecca, Simone Zhang. 2025. “Predictive Algorithms and Perceptions of Fairness: Parent Attitudes Toward Algorithmic Resource Allocation in K-12 Education” Sociological Science 12: 322-356.
  • Received: November 12, 2024
  • Accepted: January 24, 2025
  • Editors: Ari Adut, Filiz Garip
  • DOI: 10.15195/v12.a15

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Inequality and Social Ties: Evidence from 15 U.S. Data Sets

Cristobal Young, Benjamin Cornwell, Barum Park, Nan Feng

Sociological Science May 12, 2025
10.15195/v12.a14


What is the relationship between inequality and social ties? Do personal networks, group memberships, and connections to social resources help level the playing field, or do they reinforce economic disparities? We examine two core empirical issues: the degree of inequality in social ties and their consolidation with income. Using 142,000 person-wave observations from 15 high-quality U.S. data sets, we measure the quantity and quality of social ties and examine their distribution. Our findings show that (1) the Gini coefficient for social ties often exceeds that of income and (2) social ties are concentrated among those with the highest incomes. We introduce an overall inequality–consolidation curve, demonstrating that social ties generally reinforce economic inequality. However, we identify one key exception: there is no class gradient in the use of social ties for job search. These findings contribute to debates about the role of social ties in perpetuating or mitigating inequality.
Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Cristobal Young: Department of Sociology, Cornell University
E-mail: cristobal.young@cornell.edu

Benjamin Cornwell: Department of Sociology, Cornell University
E-mail: btc49@cornell.edu

Barum Park: Department of Sociology, Cornell University
E-mail: b.park@cornell.edu

Nan Feng: Institute for Public Knowledge, New York University
E-mail: nf263@cornell.edu

Acknowledgments: We received valuable comments and suggestions from Kendra Bischoff, Paul DiMaggio, Filiz Garip, Lynn Johnson, Sheela Kennedy, Edward O. Laumann, Vida Maralani, Kelly Musick, Anthony Paik, Landon Schnabel, Kim Weeden, Patricia Young, Erin York Cornwell, as well as participants at seminars at Cornell Sociology, the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, the Sociological Science Conference, and the Future of the Social Sciences Conference. Tianyao Qu, Zhonghao Wang, and Haowen Zheng provided exceptional research assistance. We thank the Cornell Center for Social Sciences for providing computing resources and the Cornell Center of the Study of Inequality for generous funding.

Supplemental Materials

Reproducibility Package: All code, and all data that can be publicly shared, is available at OSF (https://osf.io/ky4ws/). The package also includes information about requesting access to confidential data sets, such as the Addhealth restricted-use data.

  • Citation: Young, Cristobal, Benjamin Cornwell, Barum Park, Nan Feng. 2025. “Inequality and Social Ties: Evidence from 15 U.S. Data sets” Sociological Science 12: 294-321.
  • Received: September 5, 2024
  • Accepted: March 17, 2025
  • Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Filiz Garip
  • DOI: 10.15195/v12.a14

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Demographic Differences in Responses to a Two-Step Gender Identity Measure

Christina Pao, Christopher A. Julian, D’Lane Compton, Danya Lagos, Lawrence Stacey

Sociological Science May 6, 2025
10.15195/v12.a13


Strategies for including noncisgender responses in demographic analyses remain subjects of ongoing debate and refinement. The Household Pulse Survey is one of the first data products by the U.S. Census Bureau to incorporate a two-step gender identity measure. This is significant because the survey, although experimental, is one of the largest federal nationally representative samples (n = 668,273) that allows for the enumeration of noncisgender people. These data enable researchers to examine how respondents’ selection of different response categories may differ across their demographic characteristics. Many studies using a two-step gender measure either exclude noncisgender respondents or aggregate them into a single analytic group, obscuring within-group heterogeneity. We find significant socioeconomic differences between cisgender and noncisgender responses, with cisgender individuals generally faring better. There is additional heterogeneity within noncisgender groups; for example, individuals who mark “transgender” are more likely to identify as non-heterosexual and never married, and those outside defined gender categories often report “don’t know” or “something else” about their sexual identity. Although differences persist between cisgender and noncisgender populations, this work emphasizes the need to also perform within-group analyses (e.g., with a two-step measure) to capture the unique and shared experiences of noncisgender populations.
Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Christina Pao: Department of Sociology, Princeton University
E-mail: christina.pao@princeton.edu

Christopher A. Julian: Department of Sociology, Bowling Green State University
E-mail: cjulian@bgsu.edu

D’Lane Compton: Department of Sociology, University of New Orleans
E-mail: dcompton@uno.edu

Danya Lagos: Department of Sociology, University of California Berkeley
E-mail: dlagos@berkeley.edu

Lawrence Stacey: Department of Sociology, Vanderbilt University
E-mail: lawrence.stacey@vanderbilt.edu

Acknowledgments: This publication was supported by the Princeton University Library Open Access Fund.

Reproducibility Package: Stata replication code is available on the Open Science Framework (OSF), https://osf.io/vk36p/. At the time of writing, data are publicly available via the U.S. Census Bureau website: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/household-pulse-survey/data/datasets.html. Please contact the authors if there are difficulties accessing the data.

  • Citation: Pao, Christina, Christopher A. Julian, D’Lane Compton, Danya Lagos, Lawrence Stacey. 2025. “Demographic Differences in Responses to a Two-Step Gender Identity Measure” Sociological Science 12: 277-293.
  • Received: February 12, 2025
  • Accepted: March 24, 2025
  • Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Kristen Schilt
  • DOI: 10.15195/v12.a13

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What Are You Talking about? Discussion Frequency of Issues Captured in Common Survey Questions

Turgut Keskintürk, Kevin Kiley, Stephen Vaisey

Sociological Science May 2, 2025
10.15195/v12.a12


Social science surveys regularly ask respondents to generate opinions or positions on issues deemed to be of political and social importance, such as confidence in government officials or federal spending priorities. Many theories assume that interpersonal deliberation is a primary mechanism through which people develop positions on such issues, but it is unclear how often the issues captured by such questions become a topic of conversation. Using an original survey of 2,117 American adults, we quantify how often people report discussing the issues tapped by 88 questions in the General Social Survey’s core questionnaire, as well as how often respondents say they individually reflect on these issues, how important they believe them to be, and how sensitive they believe it would be to discuss those issues. We find that the majority of respondents report discussing the majority of issues fewer than once or twice a year, with the modal response that respondents have never discussed an issue in the past year. At the same time, some topics—such as religious beliefs and generic appraisals of political leaders—come up quite frequently, and a small number of respondents report frequently discussing most items. We consider the implications of these findings for theories of belief formation.
Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Turgut Keskintürk: Contributed equally. Department of Sociology, Duke University
E-mail: turgut.keskinturk@duke.edu

Kevin Kiley: Contributed equally. Department of Sociology and Anthropology, North Carolina State University
E-mail: kkiley@ncsu.edu

Stephen Vaisey: Department of Sociology and Political Science, Duke University
E-mail: stephen.vaisey@duke.edu

Supplemental Materials

Reproducibility Package: The data and code to reproduce the full set of analyses are provided at https://osf.io/u8b7v.

  • Citation: Keskintürk, Turgut, Kevin Kiley, Stephen Vaisey. 2025. “What Are You Talking about? Discussion Frequency of Issues Captured in Common Survey Questions” Sociological Science 12: 256-276.
  • Received: January 2, 2025
  • Accepted: March 26, 2025
  • Editors: Ari Adut, Peter Bearman
  • DOI: 10.15195/v12.a12

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Do Employers Care about Past Mobility? A Field Experiment Examining Hiring Preferences in Technology and Non-Technology Jobs

Matissa Hollister, Nicole Denier, Xavier St-Denis

Sociological Science April 28, 2025
10.15195/v12.a11


Research in previous decades found that employers imposed penalties on job applicants with a past history of frequent moves across employers, and yet mobility across employers is more common in today’s economy and perhaps even a valuable career strategy. While popular discourse and some academic literature has portrayed highly mobile careers as widespread and broadly accepted, other studies have suggested that such careers may only thrive in specific pockets of the labor market, particularly high-technology jobs. We conducted a field experiment in the United States to assess employer responses to resumes with three levels of past mobility. We found significant variation in employer mobility preferences, with jobs in human resources, financial reporting, marketing, and IT penalizing high-mobility applicants. In contrast, very stable work histories were penalized when hiring software testers. Counter to expectations, high-technology employers did not broadly embrace mobility. These findings suggest that employers follow occupation-specific mobility expectations, and as a consequence must balance competing mobility orientations within their workforce. Workers, meanwhile, must face the challenges of navigating a precarious labor market while also being mindful of the impact that their cumulative mobility may have on future job opportunities.
Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Matissa Hollister: Desautels Faculty of Management, McGill University
E-mail: matissa.hollister@mcgill.ca (corresponding author)

Nicole Denier: University of Alberta
E-mail: nicole.denier@ualberta.ca

Xavier St-Denis: Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS)
E-mail: xavier.st-denis@ucs.inrs.ca

Acknowledgements: This article was supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Insight Grant #435-2018-1340. We would like to thank our research assistants for their diligent work on this project: Christopher Oleh, Kabir Sethi, Gabriel Rincon, Jenna Latiok, Alexandre Zoller, Kelsey Lindquist, Khanh Ha Le, Min Kwon, Hasan Can Bilgen, Onyu Choi, Van Vai Vivien Lee, and Suzan Zhu.

Supplemental Materials

Reproducibility Package: An anonymized version of the data and the codes used for analysis are available at: https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/6U8BKC.

  • Citation: Hollister, Matissa, Nicole Denier, Xavier St-Denis. 2025. “Do Employers Care about Past Mobility? A Field Experiment Examining Hiring Preferences in Technology and Non-Technology Jobs” Sociological Science 12: 232-255.
  • Received: October 6, 2023
  • Accepted: November 9, 2024
  • Editors: Ari Adut, Nan Dirk de Graaf
  • DOI: 10.15195/v12.a11

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Literary Fiction Indicates Early Modernization in China Prior to Western Influence

Ying Zhong, Valentin Thouzeau, Nicolas Baumard

Sociological Science April 23, 2025
10.15195/v12.a10


Modernization refers to the shift from traditional values to individual autonomy and self-development, driven by economic development. Previously considered unique to Western culture, modernization has now emerged as a global phenomenon, with East Asia playing a leading role. This article explores the possibility that modernization might have occurred outside the Western world prior to Western influence. We pioneered a novel approach for understanding the evolution of Chinese values by creating a unique and comprehensive database of narrative fiction. This database includes all major Chinese narrative fiction from the Tang dynasty (7th century) to the present, encompassing 3,496 works from mainland China and 3,338 modern works from Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. It also provides a systematic comparison of ancient fictions and their modern adaptations (e.g., Journey to the West ). Our findings confirm that modernization has been underway in China since the late twentieth century. Surprisingly, a similar rise in modern values was detected as early as the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, coinciding with significant economic development. This era saw an increasing expression of romantic love, open-mindedness, and reciprocal cooperation. However, this shift was not sustained, leading to a significant reassertion of traditional values from the late eighteenth century until the early twentieth century. These findings not only highlight the nuanced dynamics of early modernization beyond Western contexts but also demonstrate that values are dynamic, evolving constantly in response to economic development, thereby challenging the binary distinction between WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich and Democratic) and non-WEIRD societies.
Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Ying Zhong: Institut Jean Nicod, Département d’études cognitives, École normale supérieure
E-mail: yingzhong196@gmail.com

Valentin Thouzeau: Institut Jean Nicod, Département d’études cognitives, École normale supérieure
E-mail: valentinthouzeau@gmail.com

Nicolas Baumard: Institut Jean Nicod, Département d’études cognitives, École normale supérieure
E-mail: nbaumard@gmail.com

Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Chinese Scholarship Council (CSC) grant 202106220093. We also thank the members of the Evolution and Social Cognition team for their helpful comments on our work.

Supplemental Materials

Reproducibility Package: The data analyzed in this article are available at https://osf.io/5bkqa. All replication codes and detailed instructions for replication can also be accessed at the same link. The pre-registration documents are available at https://osf.io/9nxpe.

  • Citation: Ying, Zhong, Valentin Thouzeau, and Nicolas Baumard. 2025. “Literary Fiction Indicates Early Modernization in China Prior to Western Influence” Sociological Science 12: 202-231.
  • Received: December 2, 2024
  • Accepted: January 31, 2025
  • Editors: Ari Adut, Kieran Healey
  • DOI: 10.15195/v12.a10

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The Sequential Rise of Female Religious Leadership

Jeremy Senn, Jörg Stolz

Sociological Science March 20, 2025
10.15195/v12.a9


In his seminal work “Ordaining Women,” Mark Chaves (1997b) highlighted the phenomenon of “loose coupling” regarding female religious leadership: congregations often display inconsistencies between their stated policies and actual practices. Some congregations declare openness to female leadership but do not practice it, whereas others officially forbid female leadership yet have women in leadership roles. Our article identifies a theoretical mechanism producing this inconsistency. We propose that congregations typically first loosen their formal rules governing female access to leadership and only later allow women to occupy leadership positions in practice. This two-stage process results in a temporal lag between rule change and practice change, creating the observed “loose coupling,” where rules are often more gender egalitarian than practice. Using two waves of the National Congregation Survey Switzerland covering all religious traditions, we test our theory both on the aggregate and the unit level and find strong support for it. Simulations further indicate that certain characteristics of the organizational population of congregations, such as their low attrition rate, may explain a large part of the lag between rule change and practice change.
Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Jeremy Senn: Institut de Sciences Sociales des Religions (ISSR), University of Lausanne (UNIL)
E-mail: jeremy.senn@unil.ch

Jörg Stolz: Institut de Sciences Sociales des Religions (ISSR), University of Lausanne (UNIL)
E-mail: joerg.stolz@unil.ch

Acknowledgements: We thank Jean-Philippe Antonietti for statistical advice and the editors as well as an anonymous reviewer for very helpful comments on how to reframe the article.

Supplemental Materials

Reproducibility Package: A replication package with instructions, data, and R-code has been made publicly available on the Open Science Framework (OSF): https://osf.io/qhb5d/

  • Citation: Senn, Jeremy, Jörg Stolz. 2025. “The Sequential Rise of Female Religious Leadership” Sociological Science 12: 180-201.
  • Received: September 19, 2024
  • Accepted: January 24, 2025
  • Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Stephen Vaisey
  • DOI: 10.15195/v12.a9

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Commuting and Gender Differences in Job Opportunities

Silvia Avram

Sociological Science March 14, 2025
10.15195/v12.a8


Women tend to commute shorter distances and earn lower wages. The theory suggests that more mobile workers are likely to command higher wages, in part because they have access to more job opportunities. We show how information on employment concentration and commuting patterns can be linked to build an index of labor market opportunities, using linked administrative and household survey data from the UK. Although labor markets are porous, commonly used measures of employment concentration require well-defined geographical boundaries. We overcome this problem by combining employment concentration indices calculated using areas of different sizes and using the individual commuting costs as weights. We show that women have higher commuting costs and, as a result, their labor markets are smaller and their job opportunities are more limited.
Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Silvia Avram: University of Essex, Institute for Social and Economic Research
E-mail: savram@essex.ac.uk

Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council through grants ES/T015748/1 and ES/S012486/1. The author is grateful to Sociological Science editors and reviewers for feedback.

Supplemental Materials

Reproducibility Package: The data used in this research include the Business Structure Database (DOI: 10.5255/UKDA-SN-6697-15); Understanding Society: Waves 1–11, 2009–2020 and Harmonised BHPS: Waves 1–18, 1991–2009: Special Licence Access, Census 2001 Lower Layer Super Output Areas ( DOI: 10.5255/UKDA-SN-6670-13); and Understanding Society: Waves 1–11, 2009–2020 and Harmonised BHPS: Waves 1–18, 1991–2009 (DOI:10.5255/UKDA-SN-6614-16). All three are available free of charge via the UK Data Service. The syntax code for reproducing results can be found at: https://osf.io/zscpf/?view_only=ccb1d3bb40c1400cacfe55382dababd3

  • Citation: Avram, Silvia. 2025. “Commuting and Gender Differences in Job Opportunities” Sociological Science 12: 158-179.
  • Received: December 3, 2024
  • Accepted: January 20, 2025
  • Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Cristobal Young
  • DOI: 10.15195/v12.a8

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Inequality and Total Effect Summary Measures for Nominal and Ordinal Variables

Trenton D. Mize, Bing Han

Sociological Science February 5, 2025
10.15195/v12.a7


Many of the topics most central to the social sciences involve nominal groupings or ordinal rankings. There are many cases in which a summary of a nominal or ordinal independent variable’s effect, or the effect on a nominal or ordinal outcome, is needed and useful for interpretation. For example, for nominal or ordinal independent variables, a single summary measure is useful to compare the effect sizes of different variables in a single model or across multiple models, as with mediation. For nominal or ordinal dependent variables, there are often an overwhelming number of effects to examine and understanding the holistic effect of an independent variable or how effect sizes compare within or across models is difficult. In this project, we propose two new summary measures using marginal effects (MEs). For nominal and ordinal independent variables, we propose ME inequality as a summary measure of a nominal or ordinal independent variable’s holistic effect. For nominal and ordinal outcome models, we propose a total ME measure that quantifies the comprehensive effect of an independent variable across all outcome categories. The added benefits of our methods are both intuitive and substantively meaningful effect size metrics and approaches that can be applied across a wide range of models, including linear, nonlinear, categorical, multilevel, longitudinal, and more.
Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Trenton D. Mize: Departments of Sociology & Statistics (by courtesy) and The Methodology Center at Purdue University
E-mail: tmize@purdue.edu

Bing Han: Department of Sociology, Purdue University
E-mail: han644@purdue.edu

Acknowledgements: We thank Shawn Bauldry and the audience at The Methodology Center at Purdue’s work-in-progress series for their helpful comments on this article. We also thank Jonathan Horowitz for a well-timed question that pushed us to further develop the methods for nominal and ordinal outcomes.

Reproducibility Package: All data and coding files needed to reproduce all results shown in this article are available at both www.trentonmize.com/research and OSF (osf.io/myehf/). In addition to the replication files, simplified template/example Stata and R files are also available in the same locations.

  • Citation: Mize, Trenton D., Bing Han. 2025. “Inequality and Total Effect Summary Measures for Nominal and Ordinal Variables” Sociological Science 12: 115-157.
  • Received: November 27, 2024
  • Accepted: January 7, 2025
  • Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Kristian B. Karlson
  • DOI: 10.15195/v12.a7

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Validating Factorial Survey Experiments: Response to Comment

Andrea G. Forster, Martin Neugebauer

Sociological Science January 27, 2025
10.15195/v12.a6


In Forster and Neugebauer (2024), we examine to what extent a factorial survey (FS) on invitations of fictitious applicants can replicate the findings of a nearly identical field experiment conducted with the same employers. In addition to exploring the conditions under which FSs provide valid behavioral predictions, we varied the topic sensitivity and tested whether behavioral predictions were more accurate after filtering out respondents who provided socially desirable answers or did not exert sufficient effort in responding to FS vignettes. Across these conditions, the FS results did not align well with the real-world benchmark. We conclude that researchers must exercise caution when using FSs to study (hiring) behavior. In this rejoinder, we respond to the critique of our study by Pickett (2025).
Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Andrea G. Forster: Utrecht University
E-mail: a.g.forster@uu.nl (Corresponding author)

Martin Neugebauer: Karlsruhe University of Education
E-mail: martin.neugebauer@ph-karlsruhe.de

  • Citation: Forster, Andrea G., Martin Neugebauer. 2024. “Validating Factorial Survey Experiments: Response to Comment” Sociological Science 12: 106-114.
  • Received: December 6, 2024
  • Accepted: December 6, 2024
  • Editors: Arnout van de Rijt
  • DOI: 10.15195/v12.a6



Factorial Survey Experiments to Predict Real-World Behavior: A Cautionary Tale from Hiring Studies

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