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Force of Attraction and Partner Availability in the U.S. Marriage Market: A Two-Sided Matching Model

By on February 17, 2026 in Articles

Yuan Cheng, John K. Dagsvik, Xuehui Han, Zhiyang Jia

Sociological Science February 17, 2026
10.15195/v13.a8

Abstract

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This article develops and applies a stochastic two-sided matching model to analyze marriage patterns in the United States using 1 percent samples from the 2010 and 2019 American Community Survey, accessed via the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. This approach disentangles two sources of change in marriage patterns over time: individuals’ preferences for partner characteristics (“forces of attraction”) and the numbers and composition of potential partners (“partner availability”). As illustrated by our empirical application, the model provides a flexible and unified analytical framework to address a broad range of relevant questions in marriage research, offering valuable new perspectives on marriage dynamics and facilitating future research, despite the limitation that the model does not separately identify individual-specific preferences.
Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Yuan Cheng: Population Research Institute, Fudan University.
E-mail: chengyuan@fudan.edu.cn.

John K. Dagsvik: Research Department, Statistics Norway.
E-mail: john.dagsvik@ssb.no.

Xuehui Han: Asia and Pacific Department, International Monetary Fund.
E-mail: XHan@imf.org.

Zhiyang Jia: Research Department, Statistics Norway.
E-mail: Zhiyang.Jia@ssb.no.

Acknowledgments: We are grateful to the editor, Professor Arnout van de Rijt, and the deputy editor for their constructive comments that significantly improved our analysis. We also thank Zhenchao Qian, participants of the sociology research seminar at The Ohio State University, and graduate students in the Labor Economics course at Fudan University for their valuable feedback. We extend special thanks to Xizhe Peng for his continued support and facilitation of this project. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the International Monetary Fund or Statistics Norway. Any remaining errors are our own.

Supplemental Materials

Reproducibility Package: https://github.com/GuoguomaFD/Matching.

  • Citation: Cheng, Yuan, John K. Dagsvik, Xuehui Han, and Zhiyang Jia. 2026. “Force of Attraction and Partner Availability in the U.S. Marriage Market: A Two-Sided Matching Model” Sociological Science 13: 178-213.
  • Received: November 22, 2025
  • Accepted: January 12, 2026
  • Editors: Arnout van de Rijt, Michael Rosenfeld
  • DOI: 10.15195/v13.a8

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