Mariano Sana
Sociological Science November 21, 2025
10.15195/v12.a32
Abstract
I investigate whether the political ascent of Donald Trump, an adamant immigration restrictionist, during the 2016 presidential campaign was accompanied by decreasing support for the legalization of undocumented immigrants. Compiling survey data from 2012 to 2016, I show consistent support for legalization throughout the period. However, support was on the decline until Trump entered the presidential race in June 2015, rising thereafter. I use two Pew Research Center surveys, fielded in May 2015 and October 2016, to document that the increase in support for legalization was spearheaded by females, suburban residents, and self-identified Democrats. No demographic group, however defined, recorded a significant decline in their support for legalization. The political ascent of Donald Trump between mid-2015 and the presidential election of November 2016 was not associated with a decline in support for the legalization of undocumented immigrants but the opposite, consistent with similar trends recorded in Europe following the rise of right-wing parties. I discuss the implications of these findings for research on immigration attitudes.
I investigate whether the political ascent of Donald Trump, an adamant immigration restrictionist, during the 2016 presidential campaign was accompanied by decreasing support for the legalization of undocumented immigrants. Compiling survey data from 2012 to 2016, I show consistent support for legalization throughout the period. However, support was on the decline until Trump entered the presidential race in June 2015, rising thereafter. I use two Pew Research Center surveys, fielded in May 2015 and October 2016, to document that the increase in support for legalization was spearheaded by females, suburban residents, and self-identified Democrats. No demographic group, however defined, recorded a significant decline in their support for legalization. The political ascent of Donald Trump between mid-2015 and the presidential election of November 2016 was not associated with a decline in support for the legalization of undocumented immigrants but the opposite, consistent with similar trends recorded in Europe following the rise of right-wing parties. I discuss the implications of these findings for research on immigration attitudes.
 | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. |
Reproducibility Package: Data and code necessary for full replication are publicly available here: https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/238445/version/V1/view. Original raw data were downloaded from the Roper iPoll database managed by the Public Opinion Research Archive at Cornell University (https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/ipoll/) and from the Pew Research Center (https://www.pewresearch.org/tools-and-datasets/).
- Citation: Sana, Mariano. 2025. “Public Support for the Legalization of Undocumented Immigrants during the 2016 Presidential Campaign” Sociological Science 12: 804-832.
- Received: August 18, 2025
- Accepted: October 9, 2025
- Editors: Ari Adut, Maria Abascal
- DOI: 10.15195/v12.a32