Tag Archives | Politics

The Effect of the Texas Migrant Busing Program on the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

William Scarborough, Ronald Kwon, David Brady

Sociological Science March 10, 2026
10.15195/v13.a11


From 2022 to 2024, Texas transported more than 100,000 migrants from the U.S.–Mexico border to six cities led by Democratic mayors, creating a unique migration shock far from the border. We use county-level data to estimate the program’s effects on presidential elections. Comparing two elections prior to the program (2016–2020) with one after (2024), we find that the busing program increased Trump’s vote share by more than three percentage points in treated counties. These effects are robust to alternative analyses. To explore mechanisms further, we analyze individual-level data from AP VoteCast. The increase in Trump’s vote share in places receiving buses was driven by swing voters and elevated Republican turnout. Swing voters in busing destinations were moved to Trump by amplified concerns with crime, whereas Republican turnout was linked to heightened concerns over immigration. Our findings highlight the enduring power of minority threat and the growing role of subnational immigration policies.
Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

William Scarborough: Department of Sociology, University of North Texas.
E-mail: William.Scarborough@unt.edu

Ronald Kwon: Department of Sociology, University of North Texas.
E-mail: Ronald.Kwon@unt.edu

David Brady: Department of Public Policy and Management, University of Southern California.
E-mail: Bradyd@usc.edu

Acknowledgments: This project benefited from support from the Department of Sociology at the University of North Texas. The authors thank editor Ari Adut and the anonymous reviewers at Sociological Science for their helpful feedback in advancing the article.

Supplemental Materials

Reproducibility Package: Replication code for this article can be accessed here: https://osf.io/xfsk6/overview?view_only=bfada169cd534edebc22fea0edb56064

  • Citation: Scarborough, William, Ronald Kwon, David Brady 2026. “The Effect of the Texas Migrant Busing Program on the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election” Sociological Science 13: 273-287.
  • Received: September 23, 2025
  • Accepted: January 7, 2026
  • Editors: Ari Adut, Bart Bonikowski
  • DOI: 10.15195/v13.a11

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The Course of Law: State Intervention in Southern Lynch Mob Violence 1882–1930

Kinga Makovi, Ryan Hagen, Peter Bearman

Sociological Science, September 26, 2016
DOI 10.15195/v3.a37

Collective violence when framed by its perpetrators as “citizen” justice is inherently a challenge to state legitimacy. To properly account for such violence, it is necessary to consider an opportunity structure incorporating the actions of both vigilantes and agents of the state. The motivation and lethality of lynch mobs in the South cannot be understood without considering how the state reacted to the legitimacy challenges posed by lynching. We trace the shifting orientation of state agents to lynching attempts between the end of Reconstruction and the start of the Great Depression. Analyzing an inventory of more than 1,000 averted and completed lynching events in three Southern states, we model geographic and temporal patterns in the determinants of mob formation, state intervention, and intervention success. Opponents of lynching often pled with mobs to “let the law take its course.” This article examines the course followed by the law itself, as state actors moved between encouraging, accommodating, and in many instances averting mob violence.

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Kinga Makovi: Department of Sociology, Columbia University
Email: km2730@columbia.edu

Ryan Hagen: Department of Sociology, Columbia University
Email: rah2168@columbia.edu

Peter Bearman: INCITE, Columbia University
Email: psb17@columbia.edu

Acknowledgements: The authors thank Nathan Nunn, Eric Foner, Karen Barkey, Charles Seguin, Christopher Muller, members of the Organizations Workshop at the University of Chicago, and the XS workshop at Columbia University for their helpful comments.

  • Citation: Makovi, Kinga, Ryan Hagen and Peter Bearman. 2016. “The Course of Law: State Intervention in Southern Lynch Mob Violence 1882–1930.” Sociological Science 3: 860-888.
  • Received: June 23, 2016
  • Accepted: July 15, 2016
  • Editors: Jesper Sørensen, Sarah Soule
  • DOI: 10.15195/v3.a37


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Stylized Facts in the Social Sciences

Daniel Hirschman

Sociological Science, July 19, 2016
DOI 10.15195/v3.a26

Stylized facts are empirical regularities in search of theoretical, causal explanations. Stylized facts are both positive claims (about what is in the world) and normative claims (about what merits scholarly attention). Much of canonical social science research can be usefully characterized as the production or contestation of stylized facts. Beyond their value as grist for the theoretical mill of social scientists, stylized facts also travel directly into the political arena. Drawing on three recent examples, I show how stylized facts can interact with existing folk causal theories to reconstitute political debates and how tensions in the operationalization of folk concepts drive contention around stylized fact claims.

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Daniel Hirschman: Department of Sociology, Brown University
Email: daniel_hirschman@brown.edu

Acknowledgements: I thank Beth Berman, Jamie Budnick, Wendy Espeland, Isaac Reed, and audiences at the 2013 Junior Theorists Symposium and the Michigan Social Theory Workshop for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript.

  • Citation:Hirschman, Daniel. 2016. “Stylized Facts in the Social Sciences.” Sociological Science 3: 604-626.
  • Received: April 22, 2016
  • Accepted: April 29, 2016
  • Editors: Jesper Sørensen, Sarah Soule
  • DOI: 10.15195/v3.a26


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