Tag Archives | Out-migration

Validating the White Flight Hypothesis: Neighborhood Racial Composition and Out-Migration in Two Longitudinal Surveys

Peter Mateyka, Matthew Hall

Sociological Science March 14, 2024
10.15195/v11.a7


Empirical research assessing the link between neighborhood racial composition and out-migration has largely relied on a single sample from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). In this article, we validate these models by comparing estimates from the PSID to estimates from identical models based on internal Census data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Doing so serves two purposes: (1) as a replication exercise for findings with major implications for racial/ethnic inequality and (2) as an expansion of the scope of ‘flight’ models to test mobility models among contemporary samples of white, black, Latino, and Asian households. Results from these models indicate that white households’ migration responses to minority racial concentrations are substantively similar in SIPP and PSID, with the likelihood of out-migration among whites increasing as minority shares grow, albeit weaker in SIPP than the PSID. Results for black householders are comparable across samples, with blacks demonstrating a tendency to leave Hispanic neighborhoods. Results for Hispanic households are, however, divergent between the SIPP and PSID, potentially reflecting differences in the representativeness of the samples. Lastly, the results from SIPP reveal that the mobility behaviors of Asian households are largely indifferent to neighborhood racial composition.
Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Peter Mateyka: Department of Housing and Urban Development, Policy Development and Research
E-mail: peter.j.mateyka@hud.gov

Matthew Hall: Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy, Cornell Population Center, Cornell University
E-mail: mhall@cornell.edu

Acknowledgements: This work is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of work in progress. Peter Mateyka completed his work on this project while employed at the U.S. Census Bureau. The Census Bureau has reviewed this data product for unauthorized disclosure of confidential information and has approved the disclosure avoidance practices applied. Census Bureau data privacy policy prohibits the sharing of data or code used in this analysis. Any views or opinions expressed in the article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development or the U.S. Census Bureau. Please direct correspondence to Peter Mateyka, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, PDR, 451 7th Street S.W.,Washington, DC 20410, or via email at peter.j.mateyka@hud.gov.


Replication Package: Programs to replicate the PSID analysis are available online at https://osf.io/3rvfa/. These files require authorization to use restricted-access PSID geocodes, managed by the University of Michigan (see https://simba.isr.umich.edu/restricted/RestrictedUse.aspx).
  • Citation: Mateyka, Peter, and Matthew Hall. 2024. “Validating the White Flight Hypothesis: Neighborhood Racial Composition and Out-Migration in Two Longitudinal Surveys.” Sociological Science 11: 164-185.
  • Received: July 20, 2023
  • Accepted: December 20, 2023
  • Editors: Ari Adut, Maria Abascal
  • DOI: 10.15195/v11.a7


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