Tag Archives | Mixed Race

The Multiracial Complication: The 2020 Census and the Fictitious Multiracial Boom

Paul Starr, Christina Pao

Sociological Science December 3, 2024
10.15195/v11.a40


The Census Bureau set off reports of a “multiracial boom” when it announced that, according to the 2020 census, multiracial people accounted for 10.2 percent of the U.S. population. Only the year before, the bureau’s American Community Survey had estimated their share as 3.4 percent. We provide evidence that the multiracial boom was largely a statistical illusion resulting from methodological changes that confounded ancestry with identity and mistakenly equated national origin with race. Under a new algorithm, respondents were auto-recoded as multiracial if, after marking a single race, they listed an “origin” that the algorithm did not recognize as falling within that race. However, origins and identity are not the same; confounding the two did not improve racial statistics. The fictitious multiracial boom highlights the power of official statistics in framing public and social-science understanding and the need to keep ancestry and identity distinct in both theory and empirical practice.
Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Paul Starr: Sociology Department, Princeton University
E-mail: starr@princeton.edu

Christina Pao: Sociology Department, Princeton University
E-mail: christina.pao@princeton.edu

Acknowledgements: Presentations by Ricardo Lowe and colleagues helped inform the empirical strategy in our article. We also thank participants in the May 2024 Conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research for their responses to our research.

Reproducibility Package: R code for replication is available on the Open Science Framework (OSF), https://osf.io/8ebup/?view_only=67a953b996684d128c9384d4841ed1c5. Data are available from IPUMS USA (Ruggles et al. 2024): https://usa.ipums.org/usa/index.shtml

  • Citation: Starr, Paul, and Christina Pao. 2024. “The Multiracial Complication: The 2020 Census and the Fictitious Multiracial Boom.” Sociological Science 11: 1107-1123.
  • Received: September 17, 2024
  • Accepted: October 21, 2024
  • Editors: Ari Adut, Michael Rosenfeld
  • DOI: 10.15195/v11.a40


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