Martin Arvidsson, Peter Hedström, Marc Keuschnigg
Sociological Science October 23, 2025
10.15195/v12.a29
Abstract
Social-influence processes not only affect the rate at which behaviors spread but can also decouple adoption behavior from individual preferences, and thereby bring about unexpected collective outcomes that cannot be predicted on the basis of the initial likes and dislikes of the individuals involved. However, the conditions under which social influence can lead to such decoupling are not well understood. We identify a social-influence mechanism that widens individuals’ behavioral repertoires and breaks the link between individuals’ initial preferences and the collective outcomes they jointly bring about. We test the micro-level assumptions of the mechanism in the context of cultural choices on Spotify, combining topic modeling with traditional statistical matching to cultural change. agent-based simulation estimate peer-to-peer influence effects from digital trace data. We then use agent-based simulations to examine the macro-level consequences of “wide” social influence and its importance for explaining cultural change.
Social-influence processes not only affect the rate at which behaviors spread but can also decouple adoption behavior from individual preferences, and thereby bring about unexpected collective outcomes that cannot be predicted on the basis of the initial likes and dislikes of the individuals involved. However, the conditions under which social influence can lead to such decoupling are not well understood. We identify a social-influence mechanism that widens individuals’ behavioral repertoires and breaks the link between individuals’ initial preferences and the collective outcomes they jointly bring about. We test the micro-level assumptions of the mechanism in the context of cultural choices on Spotify, combining topic modeling with traditional statistical matching to cultural change. agent-based simulation estimate peer-to-peer influence effects from digital trace data. We then use agent-based simulations to examine the macro-level consequences of “wide” social influence and its importance for explaining cultural change.
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Supplemental Materials
Reproducibility Package: A replication package has been deposited to OSF (https://osf.io/grsyt/?view_only=133867f728644ba596eb104890cb018f ) that contains code and data required to reproduce the results presented in the article.
- Citation: Arvidsson, Martin, Peter Hedström, Marc Keuschnigg. 2025. “Wide Social Influence and the Emergence of the Unexpected: An Empirical Test Using Spotify Data.” Sociological Science 12: 715-742.
- Received: December 16, 2024
- Accepted: September 10, 2025
- Editors: Ari Adut, Peter Bearman
- DOI: 10.15195/v12.a29