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Life-Course Transitions and Political Orientations

Turgut Keskintürk

Sociological Science September 27, 2024
10.15195/v11.a33


Do life-course transitions in adulthood shape political orientations? One framework suggests that life events expose people to new information, allowing actors to assess their political beliefs and preferences in response to these social experiences. An alternative framework suggests that the link between one’s life-course position and personal politics may be ambiguous, and early experiences should be more informative for political orientations. In this article, I use four household surveys across three countries and 40 items on political beliefs and preferences to test whether lifecourse transitions change one’s political orientations. In doing this, I employ difference-in-differences models to identify the effects of six life transitions across family and work domains on a wide variety of propositional survey items. I find that life-course transitions have no substantive influence on political orientations, and the general findings are not sensitive to differences in political interest or the age at which individuals experience these life events.
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Factorial Survey Experiments to Predict Real-World Behavior: A Cautionary Tale from Hiring Studies

Andrea G. Forster, Martin Neugebauer

Sociological Science September 24, 2024
10.15195/v11.a32


Factorial surveys (FSs) are increasingly used to predict real-world decisions. However, there is a paucity of research assessing whether these predictions are valid and, if so, under what conditions. In this preregistered study, we sent out N = 3,002 applications to job vacancies in Germany and measured real-world responses. Eight weeks later, we presented nearly identical applicant profiles to the same employers as a part of an FS. To explore the conditions under which FSs provide valid behavioral predictions, we varied the topic sensitivity and tested whether behavioral predictions were more successful after filtering out respondents who gave socially desirable answers or did not exert sufficient effort when answering FS vignettes. Across conditions, the FS results did not correspond well with the real-world benchmark. We conclude that researchers must exercise caution when using FSs to study (hiring) behavior.
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Decomposing Heterogeneity in Inequality of Educational Opportunities: Family Income and Academic Performance in Brazilian Higher Education

Adriano S. Senkevics, Rogério J. Barbosa, Flavio Carvalhaes, Carlos A. Costa Ribeiro

Sociological Science September 10, 2024
10.15195/v11.a31


Access to higher education depends on the interaction between social origins and academic performance: background resources boost academic skills; but even when controlling for performance, privileged students are more likely to make ambitious choices and further transitions. Recent literature has shown that inequality in educational choices is heterogeneous across countries. However, it is still not well understood how different institutional designs within countries may affect the workings of those effects and how they can strengthen or weaken the inequality of educational opportunities. Using high-quality register data from the Brazilian higher education system, our work contributes to this understanding by investigating how SES and performance interact and drive students’ choice between three different tracks: not entering higher education, entering the private system, or entering the public system. We developed a strategy to encompass multinomial choices and decompose the inequalities into primary and secondary effects. Using the Shapley Value decomposition strategy, we correct an intrinsic asymmetry that biased previous results. Our findings suggest affluent students enjoy dual advantages: high exam performance amplifies access to public universities (indirect effect) and family resources offset subpar performance, ensuring private university access (direct effect). We found no signs of multiplicative advantages.
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Prosociality Beyond In-Group Boundaries: A Lab-in-the-Field Experiment on Selection and Intergroup Interactions in a Multiethnic European Metropolis

Delia Baldassarri, Johanna Gereke, Max Schaub

Sociological Science September 6, 2024
10.15195/v11.a30


How does prosocial behavior extend beyond in-group boundaries in multiethnic societies? The differentiation of Western societies presents an opportunity to understand the tension between societal pressures that push people outside the comfort zones of their familiar networks to constructively interact with unknown diverse others and the tendency toward homophily and in-group favoritism. We introduce a three-step model of out-group exposure that includes macrostructural conditions for intergroup encounters and microlevel dynamics of intergroup selection and interaction. Using lab-in-the-field experiments with a large representative sample of Italian natives and immigrants from the multiethnic city of Milan, we find that, when pushed to interact with non-coethnics, Italians generally treat them similarly to how they treat coethnics and value signs of social and market integration. However, when given the opportunity to select their interaction partners, Italians favor coethnics over immigrants. Taken together, these results help reconcile classical findings concerning the positive effects of intergroup contact with evidence documenting the persistence of out-group discrimination in selection processes.
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Housework as a Woman's Job? What Looks Like Gender Ideologies Could Also Be Stereotypes

Katrin Auspurg, Sabine Düval

Sociological Science September 3, 2024
10.15195/v11.a29


We question the validity of standard measures of gender ideology. When asked about “men” and “women” in general, respondents may imagine women (men) with lower (higher) labor market resources. Therefore, standard measures may conflate gender ideologies (injunctive norms) with stereotypical beliefs (descriptive norms). We test this hypothesis with an experiment in the German family panel pairfam: ∼1,200 respondents rated the appropriate division of housework in ∼3,700 hypothetical couples. By gradually adding information about labor market resources, we were able to override respondents’ stereotypical beliefs. We find that with more information, even “traditional” respondents support egalitarian housework arrangements. The main difference between “traditional” and “egalitarian” respondents is not in their ideologies (as previously thought), but in their interpretation of vague items. This leads us to conclude that standard measures overestimate traditional gender ideologies. Our study also illustrates how varying the amount of information can help identify respondents’ implicit beliefs.
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Examining Attitudes toward Asians throughout the COVID-19 Pandemic with Repeated Cross-Sectional Survey Experiments

Yao Lu, Neeraj Kaushal, Xiaoning Huang, S. Michael Gaddis, Ariela Schachter

Sociological Science August 30, 2024
10.15195/v11.a28


This study examines how COVID-induced and general attitudes toward Asians have changed over the course of the pandemic using nationally representative survey experiments in 2020 and 2022. First, we measured COVID-induced anti-Asian attitudes as the effect of a treatment reminding respondents of the pandemic on whether respondents would be willing to live or work with someone who is East or South Asian. The results suggest that the COVID-19 treatment worsened attitudes toward East and South Asians in the social domain and toward East Asians in the economic domain in 2020, but not in 2022. Second, we measured change in general attitudes toward Asians by comparing the control group responses in 2020 and 2022. The results demonstrate that, over the same period, general attitudes toward Asians have not improved despite growing attention toward anti-Asian biases. This finding underscores the persistence of general negative attitudes toward Asians beyond the immediate context of the pandemic and the ongoing imperative to actively address deeply ingrained biases against Asians.
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Teacher Bias in Assessments by Student Ascribed Status: A Factorial Experiment on Discrimination in Education

Carlos J. Gil-Hernández, Irene Pañeda-Fernández, Leire Salazar, Jonatan Castaño Muñoz

Sociological Science August 27, 2024
10.15195/v11.a27


Teachers are the evaluators of academic merit. Identifying if their assessments are fair or biased by student-ascribed status is critical for equal opportunity but empirically challenging, with mixed previous findings. We test status characteristics beliefs, statistical discrimination, and cultural capital theories with a pre-registered factorial experiment on a large sample of Spanish pre-service teachers (n = 1, 717). This design causally identifies, net of ability, the impact of student-ascribed characteristics on teacher short- and long-term assessments, improving prior studies’ theory testing, confounding, and power. Findings unveil teacher bias in an essay grading task favoring girls and highbrow cultural capital, aligning with status characteristics and cultural capital theories. Results on teachers’ long-term expectations indicate statistical discrimination against boys, migrant origin, and working-class students under uncertain information. Unexpectedly, ethnic discrimination changes from teachers favoring native origin in long-term expectations to migrant origin in short-term evaluations, suggesting compensatory grading. We discuss the complex roots of discrimination in teacher assessments as an educational (in)equality mechanism.
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Algorithmic Risk Scoring and Welfare State Contact Among US Children

Martin Eiermann

Sociological Science August 23, 2024
10.15195/v11.a26


Predictive Risk Modeling (PRM) tools are widely used by governing institutions, yet research on their effects has yielded divergent findings with low external validity. This study examines how such tools influence child welfare governance, using a quasi-experimental design and data from more than one million maltreatment investigations in 121 US counties. It demonstrates that the adoption of PRM tools reduced maltreatment confirmations among Hispanic and Black children but increased such confirmations among high-risk and low-SES children. PRM tools did not reduce the likelihood of subsequent maltreatment confirmations; and effects were heterogeneous across counties. These findings demonstrate that the use of PRM tools can reduce the incidence of state interventions among historically over-represented minorities while increasing it among poor children more generally. However, they also illustrate that the impact of such tools depends on local contexts and that technological innovations do not meaningfully address chronic state interventions in family life that often characterize the lives of vulnerable children.
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Status Ambiguity and Multiplicity in the Selection of NBA Awards

Peter McMahan, Eran Shor

Sociological Science August 20, 2024
10.15195/v11.a25


Sociologists of culture have long noted that contrasting cultural frames can lead to status ambiguity and status multiplicity. We explore these phenomena in the domain of professional sports by first replicating and then extending and challenging recently published findings on selections for the National Basketball Association (NBA) All-Star game. Relying on a large data set that includes more than 10,000 player–years, we show that accounting for better-justified performance measures reduces but does not nullify the effects of status cumulative advantage on All-Star selections. However, when replacing All-Star selections with a less ambiguous measure (selections to All-NBA teams), we no longer find evidence of decoupling between player performance and award nomination. From this we conclude that cumulative status advantage only affects selection when voters view factors other than statistical performance as legitimate, perhaps even desired, selection criteria. These findings have relevance for our understanding of status evaluations beyond professional sports, including in domains as diverse as the film industry, the performing arts, literature, politics, and the sciences.
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Unemployment Insurance and the Family: Heterogeneous Effects of Benefit Generosity on Reemployment and Economic Precarity

Ursina Kuhn, Debra Hevenstone, Leen Vandecasteele, Samin Sepahniya, Dorian Kessler

Sociological Science August 16, 2024
10.15195/v11.a24


We investigate how unemployment insurance generosity impacts reemployment and economic precarity by family type. With Swiss longitudinal administrative data and a regression discontinuity design using potential benefit duration, we examine differences between single households and primary and secondary or equal earners, as well as differences by gender and presence of children. Less generous unemployment insurance (shorter potential benefit duration) speeds up reemployment for all family types during the period with benefit cuts whereas longer-term effects are stronger for single households, secondary and equal earners, and those without children. Economic precarity increases for singles, single-parents, and primary earners during the period with lower benefits though there are no long-term effects. We argue that those with higher financial responsibility (i.e., primary earners or those with children) face pressure to find jobs irrespective of benefit generosity whereas those with lower financial responsibility (i.e., secondary or equal earners and those without children) have more capacity to react.
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