Hunkering Down or Catching Up? No Long-Term Effect of Ethnic Minority Share on Neighborhood Contacts

This study reexamines the relationship between the coexistence of distinct ethno-cultural groups and social connectedness. Although previous research suggests a negative association between neighborhood-level ethnic diversity or ethnic minority shares and individual integration, alternative theoretical perspectives propose that integration can occur equally well in neighborhoods with distinct ethnic groups but may require more time. Moreover, the causal nature of the observed negative relationship is unclear due to potential confounding biases related to neighborhood selection. To address these issues, this study presents a framework for estimating the longitudinal effects of neighborhood ethnic composition on social ties with neighbors. The objective is to estimate the differences in neighborly contacts between individuals in low- and high-minority share neighborhoods, under a counterfactual scenario where all households stay in their neighborhood for the same period. The findings challenge previous research by showing that the ethnic composition does not impact the quality of neighborly contacts. In addition, residing in a neighborhood for five years significantly enhances social connectivity, regardless of ethnic composition. These results suggest that reduced cohesion in areas with higher minority presence may be due to other factors such as socioeconomic disadvantage and housing instability.

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